CAROL HAZARD
The housing slump isn't getting better.
But the news is not all bad -- especially for homeowners in the Richmond area, said Bill White, president of Joyner Fine Properties and former president of the Richmond Association of Realtors.
While all real estate markets are local, they can't escape national influences, he said.
"However, Richmond is stronger than the national market."
White spoke recently about the real estate market at a presentation at The Country Club of Virginia.
Houses here have appreciated 4.2 percent so far this year, underscoring the strength of the local market, he said, based on a new analysis by the National Association of Realtors.
By comparison, houses nationally have depreciated 1.2 percent this year.
Three-year home values show even more strength, at 36.9 percent in the Richmond area with an average gain of $63,800, compared with 15.4 percent nationally, or $29,900.
The Richmond area hasn't escaped the slowdown. The hardest hit segment here is the midprice range. Houses for more than $750,000 or less than $270,000 are selling, White said.
The most expensive area here is Goochland County, where the average sales price so far this year is nearly $540,000.
The area with the highest price per square foot, at $214, is Richmond's West End.
The least expensive area is south of the James River bordered by Hull Street, Chippenham Parkway and Interstate 95, with an average price of $109,557 and $90 per square foot.
"We don't see multiple contracts -- five contracts on one house -- anymore," White said in a separate interview.
"And most agents will ask for six-month listings, while last year, they felt comfortable with 120-day listings."
Problems surfaced in the overall housing market when the gap between prices shot up faster than income beginning in 2000. Lenders came up with risky loan products, leading to a rise in defaults and foreclosures.
House prices have retreated 15 percent from their peak in late 2005.
But not here. "With job gains continuing at a solid pace, price increases will likely continue, though not at a frenzied pace," according to the national association's price analysis for the Richmond area.
Nationally, economic fundamentals bode well for housing, White said. Income is rising, jobs are being created and corporate profits are strong.
"I am not smart enough to tell you when the market will turn. What scares me is $4 a gallon for gas."
Higher gas prices could erode consumer confidence, which is already shaky. "We see people still sitting on the fence, trying to guess the bottom," White said. "That means they are not buying or selling."
White said he expected the housing market to improve next year. "There are more good buys now than there will be in the spring."
Pent-up demand for housing is growing, White said.
Builders are constructing fewer houses, cutting into the oversupply.
Meanwhile, lenders are shifting to traditional mortgage loans, providing more stability to the housing market.
"As long as we continue to see stabilizing indicators, then the adjustment period will be shorter," White said.



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