Richmond Times Dispatch
Saturday, November 18, 2006

The explosive growth of Chesterfield County, in particular, was underscored again this week with the rezoning application filed for a mammoth 5,140-residence Roseland development.

There are entire towns that don't have 5,000 homes. 

Already approved is a 4,886-home Magnolia Green development, half of which should get under way in the spring.  Chesterfield has in place the region's two largest developments in 3,920-home Brandermill and 2,724-home Woodlake.  No other locality even has a 2,000-home development.

Welcome, to the 300,000-pound gorilla of the Richmond region. In January, Chesterfield became first to pass the 300,000-populaton mark and only the fourth locality in the state.  Since then, it's added another 7,000 people.

The county's 21st-century boom has had an obvious effect on schools and roads.  But what does it mean for the balance of power in the region? Does Chesterfield become the new No. 1 in other ways?  Is the tail beginning to wag the dog?

"It makes Chesterfield more attractive in the area for both retail and employment location," Chesterfield Planning Director Kirk Turner answered yesterday.

"It enhances our ability to attract industry because we have the labor force available. . . . It enhances our ability to attract upper-end retail."

All that translates over time to more businesses, more political representation, more government money and even more clout in dealing with the state and neighboring localities.

Bob Holsworth, a political expert at Virginia Commonwealth University, said yesterday that the influence is already being felt.  "Certainly, Chesterfield County is one of the major players in the state, not just in the region. . . . It is not a stepchild any longer. Beyond that, politically it's very, very, important."

Once overwhelmingly Republican, it might now be better labeled solidly Republican.  Holsworth said Chesterfield was key to the defeat of Republican Sen. George Allen in the Senate election, giving him only a 21,000-vote advantage, instead of the 28,000 he had won in 2000.

The behemoth now factors into both parties' strategies, he added: Republicans need big numbers to offset Democratic numbers in Northern Virginia, while Democrats need to keep the Chesterfield margin manageable.

However, in the future, parties may not matter as much, Holsworth predicted. "Chesterfield is likely to see the same kind of politics emerge locally as we see in some of these explosive arenas in Northern Virginia," he said.

In other words, he said, "people stuck in traffic, people worried about growth" increasingly vote those issues. Some of that emerged in Chesterfield's last supervisory election, he said. "I wouldn't be surprised if we see more of that."

One thing you can count on is continued growth, even if the national economy worsens. Coming growth at the Fort Lee military base will ensure that, Turner said.

The 300,000-pound gorilla should become a 350,000-pounder by about 2014, a 400,000-pounder by 2022 and a 450,000-pounder by 2030.

By then, we may have to change the name.   Welcome to the greater Chesterfield metropolitan area.

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